Risk

Perpetual futures

Positions are fully collateralised and peer-to-peer: the counterparty's margin bounds the maximum gain. A position that would pay more than the escrow holds pays the escrow.

At 25× leverage a 3.8% adverse move liquidates a position. Liquidation occurs at the maintenance buffer rather than at zero equity, so a liquidated side may retain part of its margin.

Positions settle against an oracle price posted by a signer quorum, which can move a price within its deviation cap and rate limit.

Draws

23.68% of draws return nothing and the stake is not recoverable on those draws. A further 70% return draw credit, which is not withdrawable. An item is returned on 6.32% of draws, or 1 in 16.

Average return is 95% of stake, so the expected result over any number of draws is a loss. Counting only cash-realisable outcomes the return is 48.33%, because credit is 49.1% of the payout and can only be spent on further draws at the same 95% return.

Selling won items back at 85% reduces the item portion further.

A tier the bankroll cannot cover cannot be won while it is unavailable.

Custody

Items are held by third-party vaults and insured by third parties. AGORA does not hold the goods and is not the insurer. If a vault fails, recourse is against the vault and its insurer. Redemption is irreversible: the token is burned before the item ships.

Loans

Loan terms are fixed at acceptance. There is no price-based liquidation and no extension: unpaid at maturity plus the 6-hour grace period, and the lender takes the collateral.

Contracts

Not independently audited. Non-upgradeable, so a discovered defect cannot be patched in place — it requires a redeployment and a migration.

USDG

The issuer can freeze an individual address and pause all transfers. A frozen address cannot withdraw. AGORA cannot override this.

Jurisdiction

Availability is restricted in some jurisdictions. Draws in particular are regulated as gambling in many places and are not offered there.